#asklbs02: What are your thoughts on Bitcoin?

From now until 29-Jan, you could access https://app.sli.do/event/lxmezhxh and ask questions anonymously. 

Question

What are your thoughts on Bitcoin?

Answer:

I don't think I got anything clever to say about Bitcoin (BTC) which people far smarter than me had not.

Simply put I think it is too difficult. 

When you buy a piece of property, you more or less know if you are overpaying based on adjacent properties' sale price, rentals, historic prices, etc.

You know that a particular property price is going to appreciate when this MRT is built, or when it becomes more accessible. Human beings are naturally good at property investing.

But I don't know how that natural ability of logic and reasoning can be extended to something like BTC.

I do have something to contribute to this discussion... and that is my idea of Process and Results. 

I believe that if you follow the proper process, after a reasonable long time, you would invariably get the results you deserve.

I had a friend who knew next to nothing about stocks, but was in a hurry to make money. He simply followed the recommendations made by brokerages, and made a reasonably small fortune. For almost a year, he listened politely to my value investing ideas, but continued betting blindly on brokerages' recommendations. His returns that year was about 20%. Mine? 5%.

What he followed was the wrong process, but it lead him to desirable results. Sometimes we even confuse the result with the process. The sun didn't rise because the rooster crowed.

There is a sad ending to my friend's story, and it has to do with cryptocurrencies. Based on his research, he believed that a certain coin would be widely adopted by banks. He made a small profit at first, but got tempted to buy more.

It ended with an unrealized 90% loss.

(I just check the price and it is still a 90% loss today, I have no idea if he had sold, and I am too afraid to ask)

***

There are too many things in life that cannot be achieved with intelligence and logic. Accept it and move on. Sometimes it is not about doing the right things but avoiding the wrong ones. There is no proper process for BTC.

Stick with the right process. Losing money is fine, but losing the discipline is far more disastrous.

P.S. I have a colleague whose son is a Bitcoin millionaire.