Non-investing related post: Life and regret.

Today I wish to take time off from talking about investment guidelines and a little about what is happening to my life recently. Basically a bit on my reflections on life a little.

Some events happened recently that got me thinking a bit.

First, my mum fell from her bike while on the way back home. She didn’t suffer a fracture or any broken bones, fortunately. At her ripe old age of 68, this would be considered more than fortunate. 
She had probably done a fair bit of reflection on her own and is very concern with my future (I am very much into my mid-life period and still single). Frankly, I do not think I deserve to be with anyone, and I do not have anything to offer. 

 

There is some lady in my mind all these while and I do think of her from time to time. But as time passes, it become a fading dream. I don’t think I would ever muster the courage to ask her out again… what do I have to offer?

 

Like any unproductive person on the web, I chanced upon this youtube clip featuring Deshauna Barber. 

Take 10 minutes to listen to this. 

It was a story of perpetually trying to be the next Ms USA. Besides the tagline: If not you, who else? The takeaway was…

do not fear failure, but be terrified of regret.

 

Clearly I have a lot of regrets in my life.

 

If I could turn back the clock, there are a huge list of things I wish I would not do. The top of the list is to tell my mum about diabetes. Stop those punishing carbohydrate-heavy meals. 

 

My biggest regret is that at the age of 68, my mum have to watch what she eats at every moment. I fear one day that she might suffered from irreversible kidney damage. My mum had mild depression, and I do worried that it could get worse when life becomes more punishing. More cruel.

 

So ever since my mum had diabetes, I am trying to do some good in this life, trying to accumulate some karma. I donated more money. I try my best to teach people on investing. Although not many people listen, I still keep trying.

And I still think I am a failure as a son.

 

The second even that happened recently was me rewatching this crap of a movie call “20^th Century Boys.” It wasn’t very well made in many measures. But the ending was quite significant. What we do in life can have very far-reaching consequences. Many bad things that come your way could have been prevented if you had done the simple things, such as apologizing. Don't wait until you are too old to regret about the things you done.

 

This movie tied in with my thoughts about regrets.

 

Thank you for reading if you are, and for allowing me to have some sort of catharsis with writing.

***

PS: Right now, I do think about how meaningless and aimless my life is. I am kinda sick of it. I do think about going on some bike charity ride to raise funds for a meaningful cause....

Feb 2021 Portfolio Review

Update on 22-Feb-2021

Straits Times Index Fund: +0.43%
Hong Kong Tracker Fund: +11.41%
S&P 500 Index Fund: +4.59%

My Portfolio Returns: +16.41%

Transactions:
-Modest increase in Perfect Shape holdings at the start of this month
-Modest selling in Perfect Shape holdings after it enjoyed a 50% increase in less than two weeks.
-Significant increase of OKP for CPF portfolio
-Complete divestment of Haw Par (29.4% profit)

Comments:
The stock for Perfect Shape went on a tear, shortly after significant insider purchase were observed recently. As I have commented in my previous post, at 3.1x a share, a buyer isn't paying a lot for growth. But that is my opinion.

Perfect Shape is now about 28% of my entire portfolio, and has return over 100% without dividends considered.

OKP would be releasing results this coming Monday (in a matter of two days at the time I wrote this post). I don't expect results to be fantastic, and there shouldn't be anything to worry about as long as its net asset is intact.

Genting Singapore released results recently. Even though earnings are dramatically reduced, it is still cash flow positive. It might sound delightful until the following disclosure:

"During the financial year, the Group fully redeemed its investments in quoted debt securities, which resulted in a decrease in non-current assets. The net proceeds from the redemption have been included in the proceeds of $205.6 million recorded in the Group’s Statement of Cash Flows for the financial year ended 31 December 2020."

Book value has been reduced to 64 from 68 cents. I don't see significant decrease in debt despite the above redemption.

Also noted is that Genting Singapore is still pursuing the IR opportunity in Japan.

"In relation to the Group’s geographical diversification strategy, we are encouraged by the steps taken by the City of Yokohama to launch a formal bidding process for the development of an Integrated Resort (IR) which will transform the City to become a gateway to Japan for inbound visitors and contribute towards Japan’s tourism growth strategy. We remain committed to our vision of creating a world-class IR destination that is uniquely positioned and sustainable, and anchored on strong local partnerships. We will continue to engage the relevant stakeholders in this process."

I had a quick look at the budget announced by our DPM/Finance Minister recently. It seems like the support for wages would be significantly tapered off, even for the worst hit sector: tourism and aviation. This Support will drop from 50% (till Mar 2021) to 30% (Apr-Jun 2021) and then 10% (Jul-Sep 2021). As such, I expect Genting to be close to breakeven or slightly more for 2021.

Given that it will bid for Yokohoma as well as going ahead with the 4.5B expansion in coming years, I am not sure if the book value will hold.

I own only token amount of stock in Genting (for my mum), but should be thinking of liquidating this holding in the coming days.

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My personal opinion of the market is that it is simply too optimistic now, especially with how many and how high first day IPO performed. There was even a survey on business times, quoting that most investors in America are motivated to take risk with equities. When more and more people are using relative valuation (e.g. coy A in this sector sells for 10x PE, and coy B sells for 5x, so coy B must be cheaper), the worrier I got.

When the crowd swings one way, I am motivated to go the other. Hence, I will pay attention to going-private deals. I have no ideas and plenty of capital to deploy. 

***

Update on 22-Feb: OKP's result appeared to be decent but it was largely bolstered by the Job Support Scheme (COVID-19 stimulus by Singapore government to support wages). Without it, it would be a 4m loss instead. Still, this is enjoyed by the market as a whole and perhaps should not be discounted or pessimistically looked at.

Dividends held steady at 0.7 cents a share, giving it a 3.9% yield based on the last traded price of 0.176.

Divested Haw Par prior to earnings release, as it is about fair value given that UOB had risen by some margin. Results were out just hours ago, it didn't look too great but at least dividend is held. Haw Par is a holding I bought for my dad, and it was based on simple Sum-of-the-Parts valuation.