March 2025 portfolio update

Year to date:
My portfolio: 35.72%

S&P: -6.29%

Tracker Fund: 15.25%

STI: 5.92%

Notable transactions: as the price of OKP revised upwards, 1 took profit on about 1/3 of my entire holdings. The extra liquidity was used to purchase CityDev, prior to senior Kwek's decisio to drop the case. Additional capital from CPF was used to purchase more CityDev after the announcement. I have now around 2000 shares.

Personally, I do not think of this idea as a high conviction one there are no known possible catalyst, other than the need of an extremely powerful and rich family to save face, and demonstrate competence.

 There is of course a lot of value in the stock but the dividend is far from risk free rate. Shedding as much OKP that I have result in way more capital than ideas I have at hand. That perhaps could explain the lack of discipline in deploying my capital. 

The lack a discipline extends towards a short-termed punt on BYD based on trends/charts/news. The end result reminds me that I am at most a mediocre trader. A modest amount of profit was the outcome of this effort.

I watch with interest at the recent earnings release from Nongfu Spring and Anta Sports. NFS faced both political and customer retention weakness. The company shown slowing growth from its bottled water segment, and vey encouraging growth from other products, esp tea. I wagered that negative public sentiments towards the stock should be short-lived. However the price is still a little too high for my taste, even with option selling advantages to potentially bring down the price.

Anta Sports earnings show similar consumer weakness, but more aligned with a more cautious economy than specific sentiments to the company. Long term thinking, as well as above average ability to tolerate downturn in prices, could possibly make this a profitable holding.

My experience with FuShouYuan may dissuade me from this thought. it is far easier to bet on book value plays than compounders. The dividends at FSY is large, and it is possibly a hint to share holders that long term growth is impacted. I like Anta Sports dividend-- though modest, it displayed a steady upward trend.

Speaking of dividends, Clifford ML dividend held strong, possibly buoyed by silver bullion's rally . I disagree with such an investment but even taking a late haircut off the current value of silver, the stock price is not high. Though it is no longer the bargain stock that it was.

The last book value play is Powermatic Data. Some of my mates called it Problematic Data in jest, and I love companies with problems. The current problem is earnings, and its new CEO night be able - to handle that however. The apparent value with this stock is the building which the company is repurposing... with the belief of the board is that it would bring in more dough than just selling the building outright.

With book value play, the game plan is simple - accumulate on weakness. For compounders, concerns about earning power is impacted long term isn't that apparent sometimes..

Feb 2025 Portfolio Update

Portfolio: 30.33% (was 9.35%)

ES3 (Straits Times Index Fund): 3.34% (was 2.34%)

S&P (S&P 500 Index): 0.56% (was 1.77%)

2800 (Tracker Fund Index): 13.26% (was 4.32%)

It was days before the last update and plenty of things happened for my portfolio.

Not only did OKP did very well in the days after earnings release, Alibaba had a revival (again?) that was way more optimistic than the last 2, or 3 times where it rose and faltered.

In fact, the HSI did very well in a matter of days, but Alibaba's rise seems especially prominent as Xi seems to soften his stance on private enterprise and 'common prosperity,' a term that I still struggle to understand.

The market treat me very kindly beside the upmove by Alibaba and OKP. Clifford Modern Living release a special dividend of HKD 0.112 per share. That removes 113.8m (or 104.9m RMB) of cash from its books.

What is the residue value? Clifford has100m RMB of deposites, and 344m of cash before this announcement. It also have 62.8m in silver bullion, which should be lower than market value since silver prices went a little higher since.

It has  payables of 118m - 34m of receivables, which net to 84m. There is about 60m of other liabilities, so total up there is 144m of liabilities.

The liquid assets totaled (100+344+62.8) 506.8m, and taking away 104.9m for dividend means it is 401.9m of net liquid assets. There are 144m of liabilities, so the result is 257.9m RMB.

There are 1015.75m shares, and current stock price is 0.67 HKD. That is a market cap of 680m HKD, or 636.7m RMB. Buying stock now is paying for a enterprise value of 378m.

Free cash flow is about 80-150m in the last five years. Even if we looked back last 10 years, the lowest was 77m. So I think it is perhaps wise to hold on to the shares.

Clifford has been quite a good investment, yielding me 70% returns so far. It is my third biggest position.

Transactions:

Sold out the small position of Wee Hur in CPF portfolio. The language and tone from the directors at the AGM don't sound too shareholder-friendly. Wee Hur, iirc, doesn't have a good track record in being so in the past, but who knows it might do a Centurion (I lost 200-300% returns on this, it was my third biggest position) and bite me.

Took profit on a small amount of OKP. OKP still weighs 40++% of my portfolio.

About 1500 shares of Alibaba, which is 3 call options worth of shares, were called away. I also had purchase 2 call options of Alibaba some time earlier, strike price 125. These option expire at the end of the year.

That is all I guess. Grateful that the market is kind to me, and will be looking out for how Anta Sports do in a few weeks, after earnings. I have quite a bit of synthetic positions, through options, on it.