Short Analysis: Playmates Holdings (00635, HKEX)

Playmates Holdings, the parent company of a listed company called Playmates Toys, is one of the companies that registered within the 52 weeks low of my stock screener in Stocks.cafe.

Although it is in my 52week low list, it isn't technically at 52 weeks low-- the price is brought down due to a 1-to-10 share split. Current price is at a high for this stock.

I didn't spend too much time on this company, probably an hour's work. Playmates Toys key products lies in selling Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Voltron and Ben 10. The first got plenty of boost from movies last year, but this year sales is terrible-- a drop of 36%. There is no illusion that this is a declining business. Playmate Holdings, besides its toy business, consist of investments and F&B. F&B contributions are insignificant. The toys business is Playmate Holding's bread and butter business.

My investment philosophy is simple: let the market bring the deals to you, make an evaluation and if the market is underpricing the company significantly, buy it.

From looking at its cashflow statement last year, it is clear that the company bought back a lot of shares. Adjusted for splits, it had 2.2billion shares on 1st Jan 2016, but now it has 2.08B. That is 120 million shares bought back by this company, representing a staggering 5.4% reduction in shares.

This is facilitated by the company's strong free cash flow despite a declining business.
It is still able to pay out dividends in recent years, a yield of about 2.8-3%.

The cash makes a difference in a couple of ways.
1)
The cash position is significant; based on its interim annual report, 1.48B worth of cash. It has a total liabilities of about 930m, so we talking about 547m in net cash (minus all liabilities!).

Take that 547m of cash, deduct by 2.08b of total shares, you get 0.263 HKD per share.
The current share price is 1.04 HKD. This means you are paying about 0.77 HKD per share.
The earnings for this interim 2017 report (means first half) is 0.328 HKD per share. Year-on-year, the income statements has been showing a decline, from 0.5 in 2013 to -0.05 last year. However, the loss was due to a 300+m downward revaluation of its properties. Without it, they should be earning 0.15 HKD per share. So this is a PE of about 7-8 on today's price.

I am assuming that business is so bad this year that we are getting maybe 0.6 HKD for the whole of this year (remember, it is 0.328 for first half). So based on the revised price of 0.77 HKD (due to its cash position), we are looking at a PE of about 13. This is fair.

It generated about 400m of free cash flow last year. This cashflow should reduce drastically since the breadwinner is from the toys (and it is bad business). Let say it will reduce to 300m this year (we are at 150m FCF this first half), and since market is giving a price tag of (2080m x 1.04HKD) = 2163m HKD, you getting a cash yield of 13.8%. This is very, very high cash yield. But take note that this is a declining business. Even at 200m, it is about 10%.

2)
It has about 500m of bank loans to pay this year. It can do it with its cash position, or refinance. I have no idea what they going to do, but it isn't going to be a problem. The interest is about 2.8%, but it is variable (float).

Price-to-Book is low, but it is just 1 aspect of valuation
I won't go through how I discount various portions of the assets, but a remarkable amount is reduced from receivables and inventories (mark down 50%). This gives me net asset of 5.373B, or about 2.58 HKD per share. The market is offering us this company at 2.163B or 1.04 HKD a share.

Off-balance sheet, it has licensing commitments to pay for about 150m in the next 5 years. I think it is manageable.

Summary
This is another example of a cheap company with a declining business, with a small amount of dividend. Again, business needs to turnover, but I think buying a small amount of shares for this company is quite safe.

Update as of 21-March-2018
Playmate Holdings reported earnings per share of 13.54 cents. As of now, the market price is HKD $1.07, which means our PE is 7.9. If we were to discount net cash (of all liabilities) worth HKD 0.25, we talking about (1.07-0.25)/0.1354 = PE of 6.06.

Free cashflow comes to 290.423-34= 256m. Market Cap is 2.14B. Cash net of all liabilities is 1423.625m - 766.739 - 134.273 = 522.613m.

This means we are actually paying 1617.387m for the business. Since we are getting 256m cash from this business, this means the price to cash flow is 6.32 times. EV/EBITDA is 1388.58/372.857 is about 3.57. This company is ridiculously cheap and I will be looking to accumulate more on price weakness.

Essential Books

After 2 years of investing, these are my favourite books that I feel are essential to every investor-wannabe out there.

Do follow the order as listed, as it will prevent you from making serious mistakes in your investments.

1. The 5 Rules to Successful Stock Investing
I have not seen a book that explains financial statements as well as this. Even if you lack basic accounting knowledge, this book will turn you into a competent interpreter of financial statements. How the balance sheet, income and cashflow statement relate to each other, using its example of a hot dog stall, is a beauty.

Bonus: If you enjoy the work of this author, he as another book call "The Little Book the Builds Wealth." While not essential in my eyes, it is informative and discusses what constitutes as a moat/durable business advantage.

2. The Intelligent Investor
The writing style and examples used in the text might not suit contemporary readers, but even reading the summaries written by Jason Zweig (latest edition in 2006 covered the melt down in tech meltdown in 2000) will help prevent losses.

As a value investor, we should check the downside and risks instead of the upside-- losing money is often easier than winning.

3. One Up on Wall Street
While this book can serve as a wonderful introduction to investing, it appeals to investors with slight investing experience (such as myself) with little gems like market timing (or why it shouldn't bother you), portfolio management, story checking, etc. Peter Lynch's classification of companies into six different categories is popularly used in the investment circle.

4. Financial Shenanigans
Let's say you are interested in investing in a growth stock, and the numbers look solid. But you are wary of getting suckered into frauds like Enron, Worldcom or Sunbeam... this is your book. Frequently updated to cover the latest trends (and lies) of the financial industry, this book is now in its third edition.

The market is a tough place. You need this book to protect yourself.

5. You Can be a Stock Market Genius
While it lacks a serious title, this book changes the way I look at unconventional investment opportunities. If you are a fan of the Buffett Partnership, its investments were classified into three categories: Generals, Controls and Workouts. General refers to companies which are undervalued by the market, and after buying enough shares available to control the company, they become part of the Controls group.

The last section, called Workouts, refer to investments which does not move with market sentiments. These are special situations (as termed in book #2) which no doubt lower investment portfolio during a bull market, but greatly provide relief during a bear one. This book deals with Workouts, but even if your portfolio consist mostly of it, it will provide highly satisfying returns.

The same author wrote this book call "The Little Book that still Beats the Market." Another highly entertaining book as well.

6. The Dhando Investor
If you are determined to be a value investor, this book could be priceless. What is low risk, high returns? What is the difference between risk and uncertainty?

That is all. You will spend an approximate six months to a year reading all of the above, but re-reading them is not only necessary, but entertaining.